Initial Balance Dashboard

Initial Balance Analysis

Initial Balance Dashboard

Comprehensive trading analysis and insights

Overview

What These Statistics Track

This analysis examines Initial Balance (IB) breakout patterns in futures markets. The Initial Balance is the price range established during the first hour of trading (9:30-10:30 ET), creating natural support and resistance levels for the session.

Key Metrics Explained:

High Breakout: Price exceeds IB high during the session
Low Breakout: Price falls below IB low during the session
Both Breached: Price breaks both IB high and low in same session
Contained: Price remains within IB range all day

Directional Context:

IB Close Above Mid: Where price closes within IB relative to midpoint matters for directional bias
Statistical Edge: Certain conditions show higher probability of directional moves

Overall

Sample Size: 2,577 days

High Breakout

67.1%(1,729)

Low Breakout

72.4%(1,866)

Both Breached

40.1%(1,033)

Contained

0.6%(15)

IB Close Above Mid

Sample Size: 1,416 days

High Breakout

83.5%(1,182)

Low Breakout

54.0%(764)

Both Breached

38.3%(542)

Contained

0.8%(12)

Directional Bias: +29.5% bullish

IB Close Below Mid

Sample Size: 1,161 days

Low Breakout

94.9%(1,102)

High Breakout

47.1%(547)

Both Breached

42.3%(491)

Contained

0.3%(3)

Directional Bias: +47.8% bearish

Key Trading Insights for ES Futures

Directional Bias Strategy

IB close above mid → 83.5% chance of upside breakout
IB close below mid → 94.9% chance of downside breakout
Directional bias: +29.5% bullish (above) / +47.8% bearish (below)

Risk Considerations

Contrarian moves occur ~50.5% of time
Both breakouts happen in ~40.1% of cases
Only 0.6% of days stay contained in IB

ES vs NQ Comparison (10 Years)

ES Statistics

Above Mid → High Breakout:83.5%

Below Mid → Low Breakout:94.9%

Both Breached:40.1%

NQ Statistics

Above Mid → High Breakout:83.3%

Below Mid → Low Breakout:78.2%

Both Breached:23.5%

Extension Targets

Profit Target Success Rates

Extension probability analysis for 25%, 50%, and 100% targets

25% Extension

85.3%

High Extensions

91.1%

Low Extensions

50% Extension

69.5%

High Extensions

82.6%

Low Extensions

100% Extension

44.5%

High Extensions

67.7%

Low Extensions

Average Breach Distances

High Breach Distance:14.4 pts

Low Breach Distance:22.9 pts

Range Analysis

Position Sizing Matrix

Range-based probability analysis and position optimization

Current Range Metrics

Average IB Range:18.5 points

Small Range Threshold:< 12 points

Large Range Threshold:> 25 points

Position Sizing Rule

Small ranges (high conviction) → 1.5x position size
Large ranges (low conviction) → 0.75x position size

Range-Based Probabilities

Small Ranges (Tight IB)High Conviction

High Breakout: 78%Low Breakout: 82%

Average RangesStandard Conviction

High Breakout: 65%Low Breakout: 70%

Large Ranges (Wide IB)Low Conviction

High Breakout: 52%Low Breakout: 58%

Time Opportunities

Probability Decay Analysis

How breach probabilities change throughout the trading session

First 30 Minutes

84.1%

of all breakouts occur

HIGH URGENCY

Most critical trading window

First 60 Minutes

91.8%

of all breakouts occur

MEDIUM URGENCY

Still good opportunities

After 60 Minutes

8.2%

of all breakouts occur

LOW URGENCY

Consider range strategies

Timing Statistics

Average First Breakout:18 minutes

Median First Breakout:2 minutes

Avg High Breakout:71 minutes

Avg Low Breakout:39 minutes

Historical Analysis

Annual Breakout Patterns

Directional Bias Trends

Positive values indicate bullish bias (more high breakouts), negative values indicate bearish bias